Stochastic forecasts of seawater intrusion towards sustainable groundwater management: application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia)     

Jaouher Kerrou  Philippe Renard  Fabien Cornaton  Pierre Perrochet 《Hydrogeology Journal》2013,21(2):425-440

A stochastic study of long-term forecasts of seawater intrusion with an application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia) is presented. Firstly, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed, based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. Then, a new method was designed and used to construct a geostatistical model of the hydraulic conductivity field by combining lithological information and data from hydraulic tests. Secondly, the effects of the uncertainties associated with the pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field on the 3D density-dependent transient model were analysed separately and then jointly. The forecasts of the impacts of two different management scenarios on seawater intrusion in the year 2048 were performed by means of Monte Carlo simulations, accounting for uncertainties in the input parameters as well as possible changes of the boundary conditions. Combining primary and secondary data allowed maps of pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field to be constructed, despite a lack of direct data. The results of the stochastic long-term forecasts showed that, most probably, the Korba aquifer will be subject to important losses in terms of regional groundwater resources.  相似文献   

Coupled modeling of thermics and hydrogeology with the Cast3M code: application to the Rainbow hydrothermal field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 36°14′N)     

Florian Perez  Claude Mügler  Philippe Jean-Baptiste  Jean Luc Charlou 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(2):217-237

We present a new numerical tool developed in the Cast3M software framework to model hydrothermal circulation. Thermodynamic properties of one-phase pure water are calculated from the International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam formulation. This new numerical tool is validated on several test cases of convection in closed-top and open-top boxes. Simulations of hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium also give results in good agreement with already published simulations. This new numerical tool is used to construct a geometric and physical conceptual model of the Rainbow vent site at 36°14^′N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Several configurations are discussed, showing that high temperatures and high mass fluxes measured at the Rainbow site cannot be modeled with hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium. These high values require the presence of a fault or a preferential pathway right below the venting site. We propose and discuss a two-dimensional single-pass model that allows us to simulate both high temperatures and high mass fluxes. This modeling of the hydrothermal circulation at the Rainbow site constitutes the first but necessary step to understand the origin of high concentrations of hydrogen issued from this ultramafic-hosted vent field.  相似文献   

A dynamo driven by zonal jets at the upper surface: Applications to giant planets     

Céline Guervilly  Philippe Cardin  Nathanaël Schaeffer 《Icarus》2012,218(1):100-114

We present a dynamo mechanism arising from the presence of barotropically unstable zonal jet currents in a rotating spherical shell. The shear instability of the zonal flow develops in the form of a global Rossby mode, whose azimuthal wavenumber depends on the width of the zonal jets. We obtain self-sustained magnetic fields at magnetic Reynolds numbers greater than 10³. We show that the propagation of the Rossby waves is crucial for dynamo action. The amplitude of the axisymmetric poloidal magnetic field depends on the wavenumber of the Rossby mode, and hence on the width of the zonal jets. We discuss the plausibility of this dynamo mechanism for generating the magnetic field of the giant planets. Our results suggest a possible link between the topology of the magnetic field and the profile of the zonal winds observed at the surface of the giant planets. For narrow Jupiter-like jets, the poloidal magnetic field is dominated by an axial dipole whereas for wide Neptune-like jets, the axisymmetric poloidal field is weak.  相似文献   

Trojans’ Odyssey: Unveiling the early history of the Solar System     

Philippe Lamy  Pierre Vernazza  Joel Poncy  Vincent Martinot  Emmanuel Hinglais  Elisabet Canalias  Jim Bell  Dale Cruikshank  Olivier Groussin  Joern Helbert  Francesco Marzari  Alessandro Morbidelli  Pascal Rosenblatt  Holger Sierks 《Experimental Astronomy》2012,33(2-3):685-721

In our present understanding of the Solar System, small bodies (asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, comets and TNOs) are the most direct remnants of the original building blocks that formed the planets. Jupiter Trojan and Hilda asteroids are small primitive bodies located beyond the ‘snow line’, around respectively the L₄ and L₅ Lagrange points of Jupiter at ～5.2?AU (Trojans) and in the 2:3 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter near 3.9?AU (Hildas). They are at the crux of several outstanding and still conflicting issues regarding the formation and evolution of the Solar System. They hold the potential to unlock the answers to fundamental questions about planetary migration, the late heavy bombardment, the formation of the Jovian system, the origin and evolution of trans-neptunian objects, and the delivery of water and organics to the inner planets. The proposed Trojans’ Odyssey mission is envisioned as a reconnaissance, multiple flyby mission aimed at visiting several objects, typically five Trojans and one Hilda. It will attempt exploring both large and small objects and sampling those with any known differences in photometric properties. The orbital strategy consists in a direct trajectory to one of the Trojan swarms. By carefully choosing the aphelion of the orbit (typically 5.3?AU), the trajectory will offer a long arc in the swarm thus maximizing the number of flybys. Initial gravity assists from Venus and Earth will help reducing the cruise time as well as the ΔV needed for injection thus offering enough capacity to navigate among Trojans. This solution further opens the unique possibility to flyby a Hilda asteroid when leaving the Trojan swarm. During the cruise phase, a Main Belt Asteroid could be targeted if requiring a modest ΔV. The specific science objectives of the mission will be best achieved with a payload that will perform high-resolution panchromatic and multispectral imaging, thermal-infrared imaging/ radiometry, near- and mid-infrared spectroscopy, and radio science/mass determination. The total mass of the payload amounts to 50?kg (including margins). The spacecraft is in the class of Mars-Express or a down-scaled version of Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter. It will have a dry mass of 1200?kg, a total mass at launch of 3070?kg and a ΔV capability of 700?m/s (after having reached the first Trojan) and can be launched by a Soyuz rocket. The mission operations concept (ground segment) and science operations are typical of a planetary mission as successfully implemented by ESA during, for instance, the recent flybys of Main Belt asteroids Steins and Lutetia.  相似文献   

An emplacement mechanism for the mega‐block zone within the Chicxulub crater, (Yucatán,Mexico) based on chemostratigraphy     

Joke BELZA  Steven GODERIS  Eddy KEPPENS  Frank VANHAECKE  Philippe CLAEYS 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(3):400-413

Abstract– To better constrain the emplacement mechanism of the so‐called “mega‐block zone,” a structurally complex unit of target rocks within the Chicxulub impact structure, the stratigraphic coherence of this zone is tested using its strontium isotopic composition. Forty‐eight samples across the 616 m sequence of deformed Cretaceous rocks in the lower part of the Yaxcopoil‐1 core, drilled by ICDP in 2002, were analyzed for their ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotope ratio. The oceanic anoxic event 2 (OAE2 event), located near the base of the core forms the only stratigraphic anchor point. From this point upward to approximately 1050 m depth, the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr trend shows small oscillations, between approximately 0.7074 and 0.7073, characteristic of Cenomanian to Santonian values. This is followed by an increase to approximately 0.7075, similar to the one reported in the seawater strontium curve during the Campanian. Scattered Sr isotope ratios are attributed to local diagenetic effects, such as those expected from the possible presence of hot, impact‐induced dikes and hydrothermal fluid flow, originating from the thick central melt sheet. The absence of Upper Maastrichtian Sr isotope values may result from the removal of upper target lithologies during the impact cratering process. Based on these results, the displaced Cretaceous sequence in Yax‐1 appears to have preserved its stratigraphic coherence. During the modification stage, it probably moved as a whole into the annular basin during collapse of the crater wall, thereby breaking up into discrete units along previously weakened detachment zones. This model is consistent with the emplacement mechanism postulated by Kenkmann et al. (2004) .  相似文献   

Understanding the occurrences of fault and landslide in the region of West-Cameroon using remote sensing and GIS techniques     

Aretouyap  Zakari  Kemgang  Franck Eitel G  Domra  Janvier K  Bisso  Dieudonne  Njandjock  Philippe N 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1589-1602

Natural Hazards - Remote sensing was used to visualize the West region with the purpose of investigating recent natural hazards observed in this area. Various approaches used based on...  相似文献   

Global significance of oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of pedogenic carbonates since the Cretaceous     

Marc Jolivet  Philippe Boulvais 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(4):101132

Few global syntheses of oxygen and carbon isotope composition of pedogenic carbonates have been attempted,unlike marine carbonates.Pedogenic carbonates represent in-situ indicators of the climate conditions prevailing on land.The δ~(18)O and δ~(13)C values of pedogenic carbonates are controlled by local and global factors,many of them not affecting the marine carbonates largely used to probe global climate changes.We compile pedogenic oxygen and carbon isotopic data(N= 12,167) from Cretaceous to Quaternary-aged paleosols to identify potential trends through time and tie them to possible controlling factors.While discrete events such as the PaleoceneEocene Thermal Maximum are clearly evidenced,our analysis reveals an increasing complexity in the distribution of the δ~(18)O vs δ~(13)C values through the Cenozoic.As could be expected,the rise of C_4 plants induces a shift towards higher δ~(13)C values during the Neogene and Quaternary.We also show that the increase in global hypsometry during the Neogene plays a major role in controlling the δ~(18)O and δ~(13)C values of pedogenic carbonates by increasing aridity downwind of orographic barriers.Finally,during the Quaternary,an increase of 3‰ inδ~(18)O values is recorded both by the pedogenic carbonates and the marine foraminifera suggesting that both indicators may be used to track global climate signal.  相似文献   

Modeling of damage-related earthquake losses in a moderate seismic-prone country and cost–benefit evaluation of retrofit investments: application to France     

Ismaël Riedel  Philippe Guéguen 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):639-662

We performed large-scale earthquake economic loss estimations for France and cost–benefit analyses for several French cities by developing a semiempirical, intensity-based approach. The proposed methodology is inexpensive and easily applicable in case of a paucity of detailed information regarding the specific regional seismic hazard and the structural characteristics of the building stock, which is of particular importance in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions. The exposure model is derived from census datasets, and the seismic vulnerability distribution of buildings is calculated using data mining techniques. Several hypothetical, large-scale retrofit scenarios are proposed, with increasing levels of investment. These cities, in their respective reinforced states, are then subjected to a series of hazard scenarios. Seismic hazard data for different return periods are calculated from regulatory accelerations from French seismic zoning. Loss estimations for the original (non-reinforced) configuration show high levels of expected building repair and replacement costs for all time spans. Finally, the benefits in terms of damage avoidance are compared with the costs of each retrofit measure. Relatively limited strengthening investments reduce the probability of building collapse, which is the main cause of human casualties. However, the results of this study suggest that retrofitting is, on average, only cost-effective in the parts of France with the highest seismicity and over the longest time horizons.  相似文献   

Developing a likely climate scenario from multiple regional climate model simulations with an optimal weighting factor   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hyung-Il Eum  Philippe Gachon  René Laprise 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):11-35

This study presents a performance-based comprehensive weighting factor that accounts for the skill of different regional climate models (RCMs), including the effect of the driving lateral boundary condition coming from either atmosphere–ocean global climate models (AOGCMs) or reanalyses. A differential evolution algorithm is employed to identify the optimal relative importance of five performance metrics, and corresponding weighting factors, that include the relative absolute mean error (RAME), annual cycle, spatial pattern, extremes and multi-decadal trend. Based on cumulative density functions built by weighting factors of various RCMs/AOGCMs ensemble simulations, current and future climate projections were then generated to identify the level of uncertainty in the climate scenarios. This study selected the areas of southern Ontario and Québec in Canada as a case study. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Three performance metrics were found essential, having the greater relative importance: the RAME, annual variability and multi-decadal trend. (2) The choice of driving conditions from the AOGCM had impacts on the comprehensive weighting factor, particularly for the winter season. (3) Combining climate projections based on the weighting factors significantly increased the consistency and reduced the spread among models in the future climate changes. These results imply that the weighting factors play a more important role in reducing the effects of outliers on plausible future climate conditions in regions where there is a higher level of variability in RCM/AOGCM simulations. As a result of weighting, substantial increases in the projected warming were found in the southern part of the study area during summer, and the whole region during winter, compared to the simple equal weighting scheme from RCM runs. This study is an initial step toward developing a likelihood procedure for climate scenarios on a regional scale using equal or different probabilities for all models.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of seasonal precipitation extremes to model configuration of the Canadian Regional Climate Model over eastern Canada using historical simulations     

Philippe Roy  Philippe Gachon  René Laprise 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2431-2453

This study analyzes the uncertainty of seasonal (winter and summer) precipitation extremes as simulated by a recent version of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) using 16 simulations (1961–1990), considering four sources of uncertainty from: (a) the domain size, (b) the driving Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM), (c) the ensemble member for a given AOGCM and (d) the internal variability of the CRCM. These 16 simulations are driven by 2 AOGCMs (i.e. CGCM3, members 4 and 5, and ECHAM5, members 1 and 2), and one set of re-analysis products (i.e. ERA40), using two domain sizes (AMNO, covering all North America and QC, a smaller domain centred over the Province of Québec). In addition to the mean seasonal precipitation, three seasonal indices are used to characterize different types of variability and extremes of precipitation: the number of wet days, the maximum number of consecutive dry days, and the 95th percentile of daily precipitation. Results show that largest source of uncertainty in summer comes from the AOGCM selection and the choice of domain size, followed by the choice of the member for a given AOGCM. In winter, the choice of the member becomes more important than the choice of the domain size. Simulated variance sensitivity is greater in winter than in summer, highlighting the importance of the large-scale circulation from the boundary conditions. The study confirms a higher uncertainty in the simulated heavy rainfall than the one in the mean precipitation, with some regions along the Great Lakes—St-Lawrence Valley exhibiting a systematic higher uncertainty value.  相似文献